The industry remains optimistic about growth with retailers feeling more positive than manufacturers.
The new 1Q27 Kitchen and Bath Market Index report from the National Kitchen & Bath Association and John Burns Research and Consulting paints a generally favorable outlook for the sector, with the caveat that stronger growth is being held back by higher material costs and labor shortages.
The association said its members are forecasting moderate revenue gains for 2026, projecting low-to-mid-single-digit growth averaging 3.6 percent. Retailers are the most optimistic, forecasting a 6 percent gain, while manufacturers are more cautious, projecting growth of just 1.8 percent.
While concerns about tariffs have receded, the NKBA said nearly half, 48 percent, of those surveyed said consumer uncertainty was the leading factor holding back growth over the next six months, a slight increase from 46% over the previous quarter.
Skilled labor shortages remain a big factor in future plans, with more than half of those surveyed saying they expect they will moderately, 45 percent, or significantly, 6 percent, impact their ability to take on new projects in the coming year. “We continue to see hesitancy from the so-called ‘missing middle’ of homeowners who want to embark on kitchen and bath renovations, but are staying on the sidelines because of costs,” said Bill Darcy, global president and CEO of the association. “As we wait for conditions to improve, the luxury market remains a critical driver of growth and source of resiliency for our industry.”
